A Comparison of Center/TRACON Automation System and Airline Time of
Arrival Predictions

Karen R. Heere and Richard E. Zelenka


ABSTRACT

Benefits from information sharing between an air traffic service
provider and a major air carrier are evaluated. Aircraft arrival time
schedules generated by the NASA/FAA Center/TRACON Automation System
(CTAS) were provided to the American Airlines System Operations Control
Center in Fort Worth, Texas, during a field trial of a specialized CTAS
display. A statistical analysis indicates that the CTAS schedules, based
on aircraft trajectories predicted from real-time radar and weather
data, are substantially more accurate than the traditional airline
arrival time estimates, constructed from flight plans and en route crew
updates. The improvement offered by CTAS is especially advantageous
during periods of heavy traffic and substantial terminal area delay,
allowing the airline to avoid large predictive errors with serious
impact on the efficiency and profitability of flight operations.