AIR TRAFFIC CONFLICT MODELS
Matt R. Jardin
Abstract
Semi-empirical random variable models of the expected number of air
traffic conflicts as a function of air traffic density are derived.
Model parameters are determined from analysis and simulation of
real air traffic data. These models are applied to simulated air
traffic scenarios to analyze conflict properties in various conflict
resolution strategies. It is shown that under free routing conditions
(i.e. aircraft do not necessarily fly along structured jet routes),
the expected number of conflicts is well represented by a binomial
random variable model. Using this model, it is further demonstrated
how conflict resolution may cause a chain reaction, leading to an
increased number of conflicts for all aircraft, and how the model
may be used to predict the airspace capacity for a given conflict
resolution strategy. In a separate study, it is shown that for an
iterative horizontal-plane conflict resolution strategy, a random
variable model with the geometric distribution closely matches
empirical data. This model also predicts the aircraft density at
which the airspace becomes saturated. It is shown how analysis
of conflicts in the horizontal plane may be scaled and applied to
the analysis of conflicts in 3-dimensional airspace.